The MACD Histogram and How It Works as a Buy/Sell Signal

New rule! Also are cryptocurrencies an investment, will there be a crash? Everything answered here!

This is going to be the only crypto post for now and an announcement:
Rule 6: Bitcoins & cryptocurrenies should be discussed in CryptoCurrency. Posts regarding this topic will be automatically removed.
If there's a stock correlated with cryptocurrencies, like coinbase going IPO, then that's fine, you might have to message the mods after posting to have it approved, no big deal.
Also if you're questioning whether something is an investment or not, just search for it on personalfinance. For general currency trading strategies, see forex .
If you're wondering if bitcoins are an investment or if there will be a crash, read on.

Are cryptocurrencies an investment?

This post is going to deal with bitcoins & cryptocurrencies as an investment... they're more speculative. All currencies are speculative mostly due to how the forex market works, but more because of exchange rates between countries keep currencies balanced (including inflation, country debt, interest rates, political & economic stability, etc), so you can only profit in price fluctuations.
Sure you could buy the currency of a depressed country, like Mexico decades ago, and then hold in the hopes it'll go up (which it did for Mexico), but that's also speculation (no one knew Mexico would pay off so much debt).
Bitcoins are also affected by other countries' currency values, but more so by the future expectation of legitimacy, world wide adoption, limited gains from mining, and eventual limit in supply. But at any given moment the United States could pay off more debt, raise interest rates to reduce inflation (or cause deflation), grow GDP, or even reduce the supply of USD all of which would increase the value of USD (keep in mind bitcoins can't do any of these things).
Far too many people are treating cryptocoins as an investment because currently (June 5th 2017) a lot of crypto investors are worth a lot of money, god bless you people, so this post will also help you determine if we're headed for a crypto crash and maybe you can keep those profits.

Should I invest in cryptocurrencies?

Understand that an investment is something you hope will go up in the future or provide income, both of which for the long term vs speculation which profits on short term inefficiencies.
Speculative securities are typically commodities, options, bonds, and currencies, but also stocks that are volatile enough to give you extreme returns or extreme loses.

Examples of investments:

Examples of speculation:

Reducing the risk of speculation

Typically for speculation you reduce risk by reducing your trade size and timeframe, but since you're trying to invest into something that is speculative, you can try:
Asset allocation, a strategy that reduces risk.. If you're 80% stocks, 15% bonds, 4% gold, and 1% bitcoins, if something were to happen to bitcoins, you still have 99% of your money.
But even very aggressive long term portfolios leave speculation out completely and just go 100% stocks because stocks benefit from growth while speculative securities like gold benefit from global turmoil in the short term. Only mid risk & mid term portfolios can take advantage of gold's speculative returns.
I also mention asset allocation because many crypto investors have been using this strategy on a portfolio of 100% crypto coins, but that doesn't help you reduce the overall risk of crypto coins, you're just reducing the risk of 1 speculative asset with another speculative asset. 100% crypto portfolio would face the same risks such as being made illegal, IRS aggressively hunting down crypto profits, a drop in correlated coin markets, or just a loss of popularity would all cause a sell off. Even the USD or Chinese currencies becoming more valuable would reduce the value of crypto coins.

Should I buy coins right now?

Cryptocoins are a better investment after a period of consolidation when volatility has stabilized:

Bitcoin 2013/2014 speculation, chart

Bitcoin 2015 consolidation, chart

Source Bitstamp exchange, while the volume is #2 to GDAX, Bitstamp is better to look at for historical price/data, more charts here.

RSI & MACD key for above charts and primer

Analyzing overbought signals

So the first chart above have RSI & MACD screaming that bitcoin is overbought and you shouldn't invest in 2013/2014.
The black squares in the 2nd chart show consolidation and reduced volatility, a "better" time to invest. If you were trading short term, it would be a whole different story, and there would be opportunities to buy & short, but since this is written for investing, the small overbought signals are ignored, so if you were to buy Bitcoin at $300 inside the first blacksquare (2nd chart) and then it suddenly drops to 25%, it's okay because the volatility is much lower compared to previous price movements (nothing compared to 80% loss in the 1st chart). Any investor would tell you a 25% drop is terrible, but bitcoins are speculative and that kind of drop is pretty damn good for this level of volatility.

Nothing goes straight up forever

and anything that comes near this vertical incline will eventually lose 80% to near 100%, always happens, it's usually preceded by emotions (price euphoria), attention, and increased volume, all classic signs that something is becoming riskier.
Other speculative securities gaining multiples and then losing 80% to near 100% of value:

Notable comments on reddit:

*This is just to get you guys looking at different subs on this topic, and yeah it's mostly anti-crypto, but don't let that discourage you.

Is Bitcoin going to crash?

Maybe, the signals are getting louder, you tell me: The only chart you wanted to see this entire time.
So based on the above chart, is bitcoin overbought? MACD levels are the same as 2013's crash, but the increased in value is around 4.3x or 2.4x (depending on which you look at), so maybe we'll see another spike before a crash, I don't know, it's up to interpretation right now. There's the emotional price levels of 3000 and 4000 that we might have no problem getting to in an overbought environment before a correction. And how big will the correction be? I think 80%, but it very well could be around 50% down to $1200, the previous level of resistance which would become support.
I put everything above in its own wiki here.
Well I hope that helps everyone. Sorry to anyone that may feel butthurt on classifying cryptocoins as speculation, I hope you understand the facts. Feel free to argue or agree with this. If I made any mistakes and you point them out, I'll correct them and give you credit for it in an update to this post and the wiki.
Also the automod will is just going to blanket remove posts (not comments) with the following keywords {crypto, bitcoin, btc, etherium, altcoin} (see update 4 below) (this will eventually get relaxed if Coinbase ever IPOs) and then it'll send the user this message:
"Sorry your post[link] was removed in stocks because of rule 6: Bitcoins & cryptocurrenies should be discussed in CryptoCurrency. You can find more information in our are-cryptocurrencies-investments wiki. If you're trying to discuss a non-OTC stock related to cryptocoins like Coinbase IPO, or this was just a mistake, message the mods and they'll approve your post, thanks."
Update: Created wiki, added relevant websites and sub reddits. Also turned on automod reply.
Update2: those relavant websites and subreddits I put into the wiki, thanks u/dross99 for recommending ethereum

Relevant websites/wikis

Relevant subreddits

  • CryptoCurrency - main sub to learn about all bit & altcoins
  • ethtrader - trading eth
  • ethereum - for more eth information
  • btc - the place to have bitcoin discussions or r/CryptoCurrency; while Bitcoin does have a lot of information on Bitcoins in general, you'll find many reddit subs completely opposed to Bitcoin for heavy censorship of discussions, especially those critical of bitcoins, so you're better off reading the sub's wikis and discussing bitcoins in btc & r/CryptoCurrency
  • personalfinance
Update3: Shoutout to the mods on CryptoCurrency
Update4: Updated auto mod keywords, it's not a blanket catch all, a little completed to understand if you don't know regex but it looks like this
"crypto ?(trading|investing)","(should(| I)|could(| I)|can(| I)|how to|is it worth) (buy|sell|mine|min)(|ing) (btc|btcs|bitcoin|ether|etherium|eth|litecoin|ripple|altcoin)" 
submitted by provoko to stocks [link] [comments]

MACD Histogram Explained - YouTube MACD Crossover Forex Trading Strategymacd histogram simple forex trading strategies Charting Stocks and Forex Part 23 - How to add MACD to matplotlib graph 2 Line MACD Indicator for MT4 Explained - YouTube Trading MACD Histogram - YouTube MACD Histogram - YouTube How to use MACD Indicator - YouTube

An MACD crossover occurs when the value of the indicator changes sign. In other words, the MACD line crosses above or below to centerline, which is the zero line on the chart above This is often thought to indicate a momentum change, that a bullish or bearish momentum is being created in the market. Another crossover occurs when the MACD crosses its signal line, that is, the EMA(9) we ... The indicator on a graph in a region consists of two lines and one histogram. In the top, you can see a close view of Forex MACD indicator that appears at the bottom of the diagram. The MACD transactional strategy includes transaction decision based on signals emitted from the indicator. It is useful in identifying possible increases and decreases in prices. traders use Forex MACD indicator to ... This indicator is utilized to show intermingling and difference on a histogram graph. It is an oscillator that swings above and beneath the zero sign line. This indicator is utilized to distinguish changes in exchange and changes in value that brokers can’t see without indicators. Macd 2 Color Histogram Divergence Indicator MT4. It is an indicator utilized as the quintessence for the Forex ... Thise indicator can be used in all time frame, and the divergent line is outomatic . If you like to use divergent with MACD you can use thise indicator … MT4 Indicator Download – Instructions. MACD Histogram is a Metatrader 4 (MT4) indicator and the essence of the forex indicator is to transform the accumulated history data. The MACD histogram is a versatile tool that allows traders to make earlier entries. Learn how to implement the MACD histogram to fit into your trading strategy The indicator is often displayed with a histogram, which represents the distance between the MACD and its signal line. When a crossover occurs, the histogram temporarily disappears, as there’s no difference between the lines at the time of the cross. Now, let’s do some math! As a new trend emerges, the MACD line starts to diverge away from the signal line, and the histogram gets bigger and ... For example, if you were to see “12, 26, 9” as the MACD parameters (which is usually the default setting for most charting software), this is how you would interpret it: The 12 represents the previous 12 bars of the faster moving average.; The 26 represents the previous 26 bars of the slower moving average.; The 9 represents the previous 9 bars of the difference between the two moving ...

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MACD Histogram Explained - YouTube

This video blog is produced for http://pushbuttonstocktrading.com The Moving Average Convergence Divergence a.k.a. MACD indicator is one of the most popular on-chart tools for Forex trading. The appreciation of this indicat... This lesson describes the MACD Histogram, and shows how it's used on a few chart examples. Learn to trade Like a Pro - Join the StockGoodies Community - It's... MACD is one of the most used technical indicators in Forex. MACD stays for Moving Average Convergence Divergence. The indicator consists of two lines and a histogram. This is the twenty-third video in the series for stock price analysis, teaching you how to add a Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator to your matplotlib finance stock chart. The ... Thank you for watching!! Please hit the like, share and subscribe! Simpler Kitchen: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7xUqGuB8HwyF4oWN3sBHEw Twitch: https://... Trading MACD histogram indicator strategy using divergences and convergences in momentum. http://www.topdogtrading.net/youtubeorganic-trading MACD histogram ...

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